Weekly Market Commentary
July 16, 2018
Investors are becoming more discriminating.
Trade tensions escalated as the U.S. administration expanded tariffs on Chinese goods last week. You wouldn't have known by watching the performance of benchmark indices, though. Just four of the 25 national stock market indices tracked by Barron's --Australia, Italy, Spain, and Mexico--moved lower...
July 9, 2018
What a rollercoaster of a quarter!
When it comes to the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey, respondents tend to be more bullish than bearish about U.S. stock markets. The survey's historical averages are: 38.5 percent bullish; 31.0 percent neutral; 30.5 percent bearish.
July 2, 2018
There’s a bear in China – and it’s not a panda.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) Composite Index, which reflects the performance of all shares that trade on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, dropped into bear market territory last week, reported CNBC. The Index has fallen more than 20 percent from its previous high. It appears some investors saw an opportunity and bought the dip since the SSE Index bounced higher last Friday, gaining more than 2 percent.
June 25, 2018
The yield curve may be the pocket watch of economic indicators. It’s been around for a long time and it’s often right, but not always.
The yield curve is the difference between the interest paid on two-year government bonds and 10-year government bonds. In normal circumstances, an investor would expect to earn a higher rate of interest when lending money to a government for 10 years than when lending money for two years because there is more risk associated with lending for a longer period of time.
June 11, 2018
Never before could the Group of 7 (G7) Summit have been mistaken for reality TV.
The generally dignified annual meeting of leaders from the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom (along with the heads of the European Commission and European Council) was a lot more contentious than usual, reported Reuters.
May 14, 2018
How do employers lure staff in a tightening labor market? The curly tail grubs and spinnies of the business world are higher wages and better benefits.
During the past decade, the employment picture in the United States has shifted dramatically. In mid-2009, 15.4 million unemployed Americans were chasing 2.2 million available jobs. At the end of 2017, just 6.6 million Americans were unemployed, and employers were casting eagerly to fill 6.6 million open jobs.
April 30, 2018
A meeting of the minds.
The Federal Reserve and the U.S. bond market appear to be in agreement about the direction of interest rates. For more years than anyone cares to count, investment professionals have been predicting the end of the bull market in bonds. Bond guru Bill Gross called the end of the bond bull in 2011 – and called it again in 2013.
April 23, 2018
The world is in debt.
The April 2018 International Monetary Fund (IMF) Fiscal Monitor reported global debt has reached a historically high level. In 2016, debt peaked at 225 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP) (the value of all goods and services produced across the world). Public debt is a significant component of global debt.